What is peak oil?
Peak oil is the simplest label for the problem of energy resource depletion, perhaps more correctly, the point at which production can no longer keep up with demand. Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource, one that has powered phenomenal economic and population growth over the last century and a half. The rate of oil 'production', meaning extraction and refining (currently about 85 million barrels/day), has grown almost every year of the last century. Once demand is greater than the ability to supply, do to flow rates or costs, we will have 'peak'. The peak in oil production does not signify 'running out of oil', but it does mean the end of cheap oil. The easiest and cheapest oil was extracted first, any new oil coming on line will be more costly and difficult to extract. Without significant, successful cultural reform, severe economic and social consequences seem inevitable.
More than just oil.
I learned about Peak Oil first but in fact we have many different issues coming together forming a perfect storm that will bring serious hardship and massive change to our way of life. Over the years I have come to see that the base problem is really population.
In 1960 there were 3 billion people on earth. Today there are 7.3 billion. In my lifetime the world has added 4.3 billion. At the same time we have discovered many new ways to use fossil fuels. Billions more people using more and more fuel creates many problems. If there were only 3 billion people on earth today it is likely we would not have nearly as many problems facing us as we do.
But stopping population growth has some severe problems also. Number one among these problems is the fact that our financial system requires constant growth or it will fail. Right now it appears the financial system may already be failing.
In 2016 we have 7.3 billion people on earth and growing at a rate of 1.13%. If we continue to grow at that rate for another 65 year there will be over 15 billion people on this earth. How are we going to provide food, water and shelter for that number of humans? Is it really possible to double our energy supply in the next 65 years? If we do what kind of pollution issues will we have? Will there be enough agricultural land available to feed these people?
It seems more likely there will be forces that put a stop to population grown. Then the question is what will our financial system look like? It may be better to not know. It may be better to go on with life believing that the world will be just as it is for centuries to come and when the crisis does hit just say, “No one could have ever seen this coming.”
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